Little Hockey Trash Talk

Todd Bertuzzi's hit on Steve Morse is widely regarded as one of the most brutal acts in hockey history:



And then there's this...



They're not the same, since one occurred after fights had broken out, and the other instigated a series of fights. But they're less different than I think people have suggested.

Is He A Keeper? - AL West, 2010

Anaheim Angels

No-brainers

• Bobby Abreu, OF
  

Keepers

• Torii Hunter, OF - I always say no at first, then I look at his stats, and have to give it more though. If he can somehow repeat his career-high .299 batting average from last year, he's a top 10 OF.
• Kendry Morales, 1B - Another year like 2009 and he's a no-brainer, but there's always a chance that he's a one-hit wonder.
• Jered Weaver, SP - Did he finally start to realize his colossal potential last year, or is he just teasing us before he goes back to a 1.35 WHIP?

Non-keepers

• Maicer Izturis, 2B/SS(/3B) - If he gets regular playing time, he might play himself into a 2011 keeper list, but with Kendrick, Erick Aybar, and Brandon Wood, he's probably destined for 400-450 at-bats.
  
• Scott Kazmir, SP - He only gets a mention because he was lights out for the Angels at the end of last season. If he can recapture some of the old magic, he could be a great find.
  
• Howie Kendrick, 2B - He projects out well, but he's had such trouble staying healthy and consistent that I don't think you can't invest a keeper slot in him. He's definitely intriguing, though.
• Joel Pineiro, SP - I invested a high pick in Pineiro back in 2004. I won't get fooled again. (Cue crazy drums and/or CSI)
  
• Juan Rivera, OF - No, but the talent is there to take one more step forward and match stats with Morales.
  

Oakland Athletics

No-brainers
(none)

Keepers

• Andrew Bailey, RP - The 2009 AL ROY gives the A's their only keeper-worthy player. And even this one is close; despite his dominant performance, the list of one-and-done closers is long and fraught with disappointment.
  

Non-keepers

• Brett Anderson, SP - He's one of the most talked about guys on sleeper and prospect lists among fantasy experts, but you have to think of a keeper list as your first eight picks in a dynasty league. I just couldn't see drafting him that high.
  
• Jake Fox, 3B - On another team, he probably doesn't get a mention, but the A's are thin, and I have to talk about someone here. He's an up-and-comer, but probably will have trouble cracking any starting lineups this year.
• Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B - He's got a good name at least.
• Ben Sheets, SP - He's not. He's just not.
  

Seattle Mariners

No-brainers

• Chone Figgins, 3B
  
• Felix Hernandez, SP
• Cliff Lee, SP
  
• Ichiro Suzuki, OF
  

Keepers
(none)

Non-keepers

• David Aardsma, RP - Aside from a few outings in the dog days of summer, Aardsma was sensational as a fill-in closer. Plus his name is first alphabetically. Still, he's an unproven closer, so not a keeper.
  
• Franklin Gutierrez, OF - His numbers look alright, but I generally use Randy Winn as a cautionary tale in these situations. A slight uptick and he's a keeper, but a slight downtick and he's a drain on your squad.
• Jose Lopez, 2B/1B - If he can prove his power bump was legit, 25 HR and 96 RBI is extremely good at 2B. Just don't draft him to play him at first. You can do better.
• Ryan Rowland-Smith, SP - It seems like he can clearly pitch, but a low strikeout rate means he'll never break a keeper list.
  

Texas Rangers

No-brainers

• Ian Kinsler, 2B
  

Keepers

• Elvis Andrus, SS - You'd like to see him boost his HR or AVG in 2010, but he showed enough speed to at least merit consideration for a keeper spot. And of course, the upside is Jimmy Rollins.
  
• Nelson Cruz, OF - Cruz is one of the toughest guys to project for 2010. I've seen him projected at anywhere from 20 HR and 12 steals to 35 HR and 28 steals. If he falls in the middle (say, 28 HR and 20 SB), he's worth carrying.
• Michael Young, 3B - He posted his highest batting average and HR total since 2005. While he loses SS eligibility this year, he's still a reliable bat and a solid producer across all five categories.
  

Non-keepers

• Chris Davis, 1B/3B - We had such high hopes for Davis last year, but he seemed to have trouble finding the ball at the plate, striking out 150 times in just 391 at-bats. He's optimistic about 2010 and so are the Rangers, but optimism won't put a trophy in your case.
• Neftali Feliz, RP - If we knew that Feliz would be in the rotation, he'd be in the running for a potential keeper slot. But Texas (inexplicably) wants to keep him in the bullpen for now. So play it cool.
  
• Frank Francisco, RP - As a first-time closer, he was solid but not spectacular. Well, except for his blown saves; he gave up 15 combined runs in his four blown saves. Ouch.
  
• Vladimir Guerrero, DH - Guerrero really couldn't have gone to a better place to put a bow on his career, but I still don't think it'll be enough to bring him all the way back to a keeper list. Draft him, though, if your utility spot is open.
  
• Josh Hamilton, OF - He's really just had one huge half of baseball so far. I think you have to look at him early and often come draft time, but I'd be wary of keeping him, after he's shown an ability to be just an average power hitter.
• Rich Harden, SP - Last year was a rough one for Harden and his owners. He was mostly healthy (though he still missed a few starts), but he was surprisingly not terribly good. He'll likely provide a good K rate and improve on his ERA and WHIP from last year, but you should probably be skeptical enough to ignore him early in the draft.
  

Is He A Keeper? - AL Central, 2010

Chicago White Sox

No-brainers
(none)

Keepers

• Gordon Beckham, 3B - He'll be a second baseman before too long, and his numbers project out to a top five 2B option.
  
• Jake Peavy, SP - He was quietly very good in his three starts for Chicago last year. The talent is all there to be a great pitcher again.
  
• Alexei Ramirez, SS - I see more of 2008 in his future than 2009, which means he's a power/speed guy with a .290+ batting average. At shortstop, I'll take that.
  

Non-keepers

• Mark Buehrle, SP - He's good, just not good enough. Go draft him as your third or fourth starter, though, and you'll be pleased.
  
• John Danks, SP - He wasn't a keeper last year, and he took a small step backwards in 2009. So, again, not a keeper.
  
• Bobby Jenks, RP - No no no no no.
  
• Paul Konerko, 1B - Too much of a wild card, but he'll definitely give you some pop. He'll also definitely suck in May (career in May: .231 average, .713 OPS).
  
• Juan Pierre, OF - He'll have an opportunity to play every day, but he'd have to completely recapture his highest career performances to be keeper-worthy, because he's got no power at all.
• Carlos Quentin, OF - The power was still there, but his average took a nosedive. I expect a marginal turnaround, but his best comparison is probably Pat Burrell.
  
• Alex Rios, OF - His 2009 seems like it could be a blip, but he was so bad in his brief time in Chicago that you can't justify keeping him.
  

Cleveland Indians

No-brainers
(none)

Keepers

• Shin-Soo Choo, OF - Choo had a nice little season that nobody noticed. He could be a guy who regresses and makes everyone regret keeping/drafting him (see Corey Hart), but he could be a nice power/speed guy who anchors your outfield.
  
• Grady Sizemore, OF - Here's hoping that his subpar 2009 was a result of injury and happenstance, and that he's back and better than ever in 2010. He's still just 27, so it's not crazy to think he can get better.
  

Non-keepers

• Russell Branyan, 1B - You can't. You just can't.
  
• Asdrubal Cabrera, SS/2B - He's a nice player who can give you depth at both middle infield spots, but doesn't do enough for you in power or speed to warrant keeping him.
• Travis Hafner, 1B - He quietly bounced back a little bit from his horrid 2008. Not enough to keep him, but enough to keep an eye on him.
  

Detroit Tigers

No-brainers

• Miguel Cabrera, 1B
  

Keepers

• Johnny Damon, OF - I guess? He's a prime candidate for a drop-off, as he hit 17 of his 24 HR at Yankee Stadium last year. But occasionally that doesn't matter, and it's not like Detroit has a bad lineup.
• Jose Valverde, RP - Valverde was a tough guy to evaluate for a while, and I still have trouble trusting him, but apparently he's good. He'll have more save opportunities and a bigger park to work with in Detroit.
  
• Justin Verlander, SP - He's been inconsistent over his career, but last year he was consistently dominant. He should be good again, we hope.
  

Non-keepers

• Brandon Inge, 3B - Check this out: .268, 21 HR, 58 RBI before the All-Star break, .186, 6 HR, 26 RBI afterward. He's also not catcher-eligible anymore. Thus ends the Inge fantasy baseball experiment.
  
• Magglio Ordonez, OF - His power seems to have dissipated almost completely, so you can't keep him. He's alright for outfield depth, though.
• Rick Porcello, SP - He had a nice rookie season, and could develop into a #3 fantasy starter. But he'll probably never strike out enough guys to merit being kept.
• Max Scherzer, SP - Sort of like Porcello, except that Scherzer already does strike out enough guys. He just needs to pitch better.
  

Kansas City Royals

No-brainers

• Zack Greinke, SP
  

Keepers

• Billy Butler, 1B - Had a great second half, and he's got the hitting pedigree to expect even more going forward. But you may see him as a UT-only player in the future; he's just ghastly in the field.
• Joakim Soria, RP - He's getting to be one of the most productive and reliable closers out there. Just think what he'd do for a team that won more than 75 games, like, ever.
  

Non-keepers

• Scott Podsednik, OF - No, but the fact that he's being mentioned again as a potential keeper is a sign of how far back he's come. Congrats, Scottie.
  

Minnesota Twins

No-brainers

• Joe Mauer, C

Keepers

• Justin Morneau, 1B - It'd be nice if he could partner a .300 with 30+ HR like he did in his MVP 2006 season, but he's a keeper regardless.
• Joe Nathan, RP - One of the best closers in baseball, year in and year out. He's 35, though, so his window may be closing.
  

Non-keepers

• Scott Baker, SP - He's already 28, so it's probably too late to expect a big step forward. He's useful, but not particularly valuable.
• Michael Cuddyer, OF/1B - His production has been unreliable, and he'll probably never hit .300, but he should probably be a starter in any league as long as he's healthy.
• J.J. Hardy, SS - He wasn't a keeper off of back-to-back 24+ HR, 74+ RBI seasons. A season of 11 HR and 47 RBI (with a .229 average) isn't going to boost his value.
  
• Jim Thome, DH - Not a keeper, but I love the move for Minnesota. Give Thome a chance to beat up on his old teams.
  
• Delmon Young, OF - Yuck. He was a 10-10 guy who stopped stealing bases. Go find your .284 average somewhere else.
  

Is He A Keeper? - AL East, 2010

Baltimore Orioles

No-brainers

• Brian Roberts, 2B
  

Keepers

• Nick Markakis, OF - Looks like he's going to get 100 runs and 100 RBI every year, with a high average and power and speed. Keeper.
• Matt Wieters, C - The potential is elite level, and he had a sizzling September.
  

Non-keepers

• Mike Gonzalez, RP - He was a matchup guy in Atlanta, and I don't expect him to be able to translate 2.40 and 1.20 to the AL East when he's facing equal amounts righties and lefties. Could be a candidate for biggest disappointment in fantasy baseball.
  
• Adam Jones, OF - He's got no-brainer potential, but that's all it is right now. Plus his second half was just horrible. I still like him long-term, though.
• Brian Matusz, SP - Not yet, but keep an eye on him. He could be one of several Orioles starting pitchers to become keepers sooner than you think.
• Nolan Reimold, OF - I think he's going to be an exciting player, but the depth charts I'm looking at have Felix Pie above him. You can't keep a guy who might not play every day.
• Miguel Tejada, SS - Not a keeper, but he'll be 3B/SS eligible a couple weeks in, and if he can hit .310 and produce runs again, he'll be valuable for some team.
  

Boston Red Sox

No-brainers

• Jacoby Ellsbury, OF
• Jon Lester, SP
  
• Victor Martinez, C/1B
• Jonathan Papelbon, RP
  
• Dustin Pedroia, 2B
• Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B
  

Keepers

• Josh Beckett, SP - Rebounded after a horrid April to put together a nice season. You have to wonder, though, if he'll ever be as dominant in the regular season as he's been in the postseason.
• John Lackey, SP - He's missed several starts each of the past two seasons, but if he can stay healthy, he should be very productive.

Non-keepers

• Clay Buchholz, SP - Hasn't been able to put together a whole season of productivity since his no-hitter as a rookie in 2007. But he finished strong last year, so keep an eye on him all the same.
  
• J.D. Drew, OF - Only Red Sox fans need to be told he's not a keeper, but in case there are any of you out there...he's not a keeper.
• David Ortiz, 1B - He's dropped off a lot, and become virtually useless against left-handed pitching. I smell a platoon.
  
• Marco Scutaro, SS - He set career highs in R, AVG, HR, and SB in 2009. Uncle Andy Behrens says to never pay for a career year.
  

New York Yankees

No-brainers

• Derek Jeter, SS
  
• Alex Rodriguez, 3B
• CC Sabathia, SP
  
• Mark Teixeira, 1B
  

Keepers

• Robinson Cano, 2B - He's kind of up-and-down from year to year, but in a stacked lineup, a guy who can hit .340 is almost always going to be a keeper.
  
• Curtis Granderson, OF - An uptick of the batting average and he's right back to no-brainer status, but even if he only hits .255, he's a keeper.
• Mariano Rivera, RP - He's 40 years old, but I can't bring myself to say that I actually think he'll be a disappointment. He's like Hoffman except I trust him more.
  

Non-keepers

• A.J. Burnett, SP - While his strikeouts are always good, he's otherwise unreliable.
  
• Joba Chamberlain, SP - He's just not an exceptional starting pitcher. Toss him back in the bullpen and he's at least interesting, but in the rotation, I'm just not willing to take a chance on him again.
• Phil Hughes, SP - Hughes, like Chamberlain, was a disappointing starter but an exceptional reliever. Someday, one of them might pan out, but in the meantime, only take them with mid-round fliers.
  
• Jorge Posada, C - He might go .300-20-90 this year. But he will turn 39 this year. Too risky.
• Javier Vazquez, SP - I really don't know what to think of Vazquez. He was blisteringly good last year, but his career numbers, specifically those playing for the Yankees, make me nervous. Risk/reward.
  

Tampa Bay Rays

No-brainers

• Carl Crawford, OF
• Evan Longoria, 3B
  

Keepers

• B.J. Upton, OF - He's still got plenty of upside (he's only 25), but I feel like people are still paying for his crazy run in the 2008 playoffs. As long as you only expect 40 steals and 15 HR, you won't be disappointed.
• Jason Bartlett, SS - Finally came into his own last year, proving his trade (along with Matt Garza) for Delmon Young to be a really foolish move by the Twins.
• Rafael Soriano, RP - He's got elite talent, and as a full-time closer, he should be able to double his 43 career saves this season.
  
• Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS/OF - Position flexibility aside, he's got pop at second base. As long as he can hold steady at .300, he'll be a keeper for years to come.
  

Non-keepers

• Wade Davis, SP - I'm always wary of keeping an unproven pitcher, mostly because I'm wary of keeping pitchers altogether. Davis has the pedigree to be great, but he hasn't done enough to warrant being kept.
  
• Matt Garza, SP - It's very close, and he should probably be among the first players drafted after keeper lists are turned in. He's going to make some fantasy owner very happy someday.
  
• Carlos Pena, 1B - The power is there, but so is a steadily declining batting average. If your league uses OBP instead of AVG, then Pena is fine, but not many leagues do. His negative impact on batting average is just too severe.
• James Shields, SP - He's good, just not good enough. He also seemed a lot more hittable last year.
  

Toronto Blue Jays

No-brainers

• Aaron Hill, 2B
  

Keepers

• Adam Lind, OF - It took him a while to hit his stride, but he was always supposed to be a big time hitter. And getting 114 RBI in Toronto is pretty impressive.
  

Non-keepers

• Vernon Wells, OF - Perhaps the worst active contract in baseball. His only competition? Barry Zito.
  

Is He A Keeper? - NL West, 2010

Arizona Diamondbacks

No-brainers

• Dan Haren, SP
  
• Mark Reynolds, 3B/1B
  
• Justin Upton, OF
  

Keepers

• Brandon Webb, SP - He was too productive and too reliable to not think he'll be able to bounce back from his shoulder injury.
  

Non-keepers

• Stephen Drew, SS - He's got pedigree and he turns the magic age of 27 this year, but there's still way too much of a risk of him being more Bobby Crosby than Cal Ripken.
  
• Edwin Jackson, SP - Jackson reminds me of guys like Ryan Dempster or Justin Duchscherer, who had keeper-type seasons, but you just know you shouldn't keep them.
  
• Chad Qualls, RP - He had far too rocky a road to get to his final numbers. Also his final numbers were just okay.
  
• Chris B. Young, OF - He's got the power/speed combo that we look for in potential keepers, but his issues with batting average have gone from bad to worse. Worth a flier, not worth keeping.
  

Colorado Rockies

No-brainers

• Troy Tulowitzki, SS
  

Keepers

• Carlos Gonzalez, OF - One of the very few risks I'm taking in these keeper calls, Gonzalez has the potential to be a really exceptional power/speed guy. And two different teams used him as the cornerstone of huge trades.
• Ubaldo Jimenez, SP - His strikeout rate has always been pretty good, and last year he took leaps forward in learning how to pitch. The upside could put him right there with guys like Lester and Cain.
  

Non-keepers

• Jorge De La Rosa, SP - If Ubaldo Jimenez hadn't learned how to pitch, he'd be De La Rosa.
  
• Dexter Fowler, OF - He's got good speed, but hasn't proven he can contribute anywhere else in the 5x5 system. Draft him, though.
• Brad Hawpe, OF - Hawpe can get you .285, 25 HR, and 90 RBI. And you can get the same stats from twenty other guys.
• Ian Stewart, 3B/2B - The potential for high power output from second base is there, but until he can give you a palatable batting average, he's not worth starting.
• Huston Street, RP - The question isn't talent; it's opportunity and health. I don't keep closers unless they're mortal locks for a good performance.
  

Los Angeles Dodgers

No-brainers

• Jonathan Broxton, RP
• Clayton Kershaw, SP
  
• Matt Kemp, OF
  

Keepers

• Andre Ethier, OF - He's shown the ability to hit for power and hit for average. If he can put them together in the same season, he's as good as Lance Berkman.

Non-keepers

• Chad Billingsley, SP - He still walks way too many guys, and his strikeout rate slipped last season. He can be a keeper, but right now, he isn't.
  
• Rafael Furcal, SS - He doesn't even steal bases anymore. The lineup is so good that there's upside, but not enough.
• Hiroki Kuroda, SP - His strikeout rate isn't good enough to warrant keeper status, but he's definitely someone to draft if you can. His ERA and WHIP are tasty.
  
• James Loney, 1B - Not good enough. He's like Todd Helton except worse across the board.
• Russell Martin, C - One bad season doesn't make Martin an unworthy acquisition, but his value dropped a ton after last year's dismal performance.
  
• Manny Ramirez, OF - While his 2008 was exceptional, he sandwiched it between two just okay seasons. Manny might just be a .290, 25, 90 guy now.
  

San Diego Padres

No-brainers

• Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
  

Keepers

• Heath Bell, RP - Good averages and good strikeout rate. The only concern is whether the Padres can win enough games to give Bell sufficient save chances.
  

Non-keepers

• Chase Headley, OF - He's yet unproven, but he does have some talent. Unfortunately, he's in perhaps the worst lineup in baseball.
• Chris Young, SP - He was worse on every level last year. You can dream, but don't expect too much of a bounce back.
  

San Francisco Giants

No-brainers

• Tim Lincecum, SP
  

Keepers

• Matt Cain, SP - He took big steps forward across the board last year but his strikeout rate dipped a little. Or maybe because he stopped working for the strikeout so much. Either way, he's reliably productive.
  
• Pablo Sandoval, 3B - This big guy can hit. In another, non-Padre lineup, he's a no-brainer.
  

Non-keepers

• Brian Wilson, RP - I don't like him, but one more year like 2009 and he'll slide into the keeper discussion.
  

Is He A Keeper? - NL Central, 2010

Chicago Cubs

No-brainers

• Derrek Lee, 1B
  

Keepers

• Aramis Ramirez, 3B - Last year aside, Ramirez had become one of the more reliable power hitters in the NL. He's only 31, so there's no reason to think he'll fall off.
• Alfonso Soriano, OF - I don't love the idea of keeping him, but his upside is .280 with 30 HR and 20 SB, which he is exactly one year removed from.
• Carlos Zambrano, SP - Big Z is still only 29, still posts about a strikeout per inning, and had five straight seasons of 14 wins before last year's 9-7 record.
  

Non-keepers

• Ryan Dempster, SP - Honestly, Dempster played better than I expected in 2009, but he still had a (predictable) let-down after his 2008 career year.
  
• Ted Lilly, SP - I wish I could say yes, because it'd be funny with how often he gets overlooked in our drafts, but I just can't. A career 4.25 ERA makes Lilly just another pitcher.
• Carlos Marmol, RP - He's got some legitimate ability, but he has the capacity to put way too many guys on base. If he were a starter, it might be worth the risk, but you can find cheap saves.
  
• Geovany Soto, C - A bounce-back isn't out of the question, but if he doesn't bounce back, he makes your team a lot worse.
  
• Ryan Theriot, 2B/SS - Multiple position eligibility does not a keeper make.
• Randy Wells, SP - Wells had a nice season, but an unimpressive strikeout rate and the fact that he's got zero track record means you can't invest a keeper slot in him.
  

Cincinnati Reds

No-brainers

• Brandon Phillips, 2B
  
• Joey Votto, 1B
  

Keepers
(none)

Non-keepers

• Bronson Arroyo, SP - No?
  
• Jay Bruce, OF - Bruce is looking eerily similar to Adam Dunn, except without the big power and with an even worse batting average. You've got to see more before you can justify keeping him.
• Francisco Cordero, RP - He's been a solid producer of saves and relief Ks for years, but you generally pay a price in WHIP. Don't pay that price with a keeper.
  
• Johnny Cueto, SP - He's still only 24, so he's still developing as a pitcher. But let him develop as your 12th or 13th player, not as one of your top eight.
  
• Aaron Harang, SP - It doesn't look like he'll ever recapture his 2007 near Cy Young performance, which is a shame for a guy with one of the all time great nicknames.
• Edinson Volquez, SP - Tommy John, won't be back until after the All-Star break. Keep an eye on him, though.
  

Houston Astros

No-brainers

• Carlos Lee, OF
  

Keepers

• Lance Berkman, 1B - One of the closest calls in this whole exercise, but I still have faith. Besides, he's hit .310 in every other year for the past six years, and he's due for another .310 season.
  
• Michael Bourn, OF - I hate to say it, because Joe Mandi will call me a liar, but 60 SB is no joke. If he can approach .300 and get 100 R, he's a keeper, despite his utter lack of pop.
  
• Roy Oswalt, SP - I just don't believe he's done. I expect a return to form, with a WHIP around 1.20 and 16-18 wins.
  
• Hunter Pence, OF - His upside goes beyond Carlos Lee, but so does his downside, hence him not being a no-brainer. But their values are pretty close.
• Wandy Rodriguez, SP - First off, I don't like Wandy. But all of his numbers are headed in the right direction: ERA, WHIP, K/9, BAA. He's got to be doing something right.
  

Non-keepers

• All Relievers - Nobody knows who's going to end up closing in Houston, but regardless of who it is, they're not worth keeping.
  

Milwaukee Brewers

No-brainers

• Ryan Braun, OF
• Prince Fielder, 1B
  

Keepers

• Yovani Gallardo, SP - You'd like to see more dominant stats out of Gallardo, but they'll come. His talent is too big to disappoint.

Non-keepers

• Corey Hart, OF - Hart still has the capacity to be a power-speed combo guy who can fill out your roster, but until he starts making good, consistent contact, that's all he can be.
• Trevor Hoffman, RP - He's an all-time great, maybe the best closer of all time. But you can't keep a closer unless he's been great AND you can expect him to be great again. At 42, you just can't expect that out of Hoffman.
  
• Casey McGehee, 2B/3B - He's a compelling guy in a lot of ways, but the presence of Rickie Weeks and Mat Gamel throws McGehee's playing time into question.
• Randy Wolf, SP - At 33, Wolf turned in one of the best years of his career. Don't expect him to do it again at 34.
  

Pittsburgh Pirates

No-brainers
(none)

Keepers

• Andrew McCutcheon, OF - After being the Pirates' best prospect for McCutcheon has arrived. Look for more steals, about the same power.
  

Non-keepers

• Ryan Doumit, C - He was in a position last year to get himself onto a keeper list, but injuries and ineffectiveness quelled that. Still, don't you (bum bum bum bum bum bum) forget about him.
  
• Garrett Jones, OF - This isn't to say that Jones couldn't help your team. I just have a hard time saying that he'll help your team any more than twenty other guys who can hit .290 with 25 HR.

St. Louis Cardinals

No-brainers

• Matt Holliday, OF
  
• Albert Pujols, 1B
• Adam Wainwright, SP
  

Keepers

• Chris Carpenter, SP - He's had a litany of injuries over his career, but when healthy, he's a top ten starting pitcher. Just pray for that.
  

Non-keepers

• Ryan Franklin, RP - Franklin was a saves machine last year, but ever since Danny Kolb, I've become wary of closers who don't strike people out...or who become closers for the first time at age 36.
  
• Ryan Ludwick, OF - I know I told you to keep him last year, and I'll take the blame for that one. This looks like Pat Burrell 1.1.
• Colby Rasmus, OF - He's got better batting average potential than Jay Bruce, but less power potential. Either way, he hasn't shown enough to keep him yet.
  

Is He A Keeper? - NL East, 2010

Atlanta Braves

No-brainers
(none)

Keepers

• Tommy Hanson, SP - He was an elite prospect, and he produced like one. There's always the concern of a sophomore slump, but Tim Lincecum proved that you can just win a Cy Young instead.
• Brian McCann, C - He's not flashy, but he's productive and consistent. Let's just hope he doesn't catch whatever Russell Martin had last year.
  

Non-keepers

• Matt Diaz, OF - If playing time were assured, this decision would be much more difficult.
  
• Tim Hudson, SP - Age and health have him headed in the wrong direction. Don't even think about it.
  
• Chipper Jones, 3B - Apparently age 37 is when Chipper finally hit a wall. A small bounce-back is possible, but you can't keep him.
• Jair Jurrjens, SP - He had great ratios last year, but so did Randy Wolf, with the same strikeout rate. It's close, but for now, he's on the outside.
  
• Nate McLouth, OF - He's a 20/20 threat, but on a Braves team without any real offensive lynchpin, you can't count on run production.
  

Florida Marlins

No-brainers

• Hanley Ramirez, SS
  

Keepers

• Josh Johnson, SP - He finally put together the kind of season we were all expecting after his breakthrough 2006 performance. Expect more of the same.
  

Non-keepers

• Emilio Bonifacio, SS/3B - One game into the 2009 season, Bonifacio was a superstar. Now, not so much.
  
• Jorge Cantu, 1B/3B - He's got RBIs and position flexibility, but he's not a plus in homers, speed, or average.
• Chris Coghlan, OF - I wish I could say yes, because he used to live in my house. But in the outfield, he's essentially David DeJesus.
  
• Dan Uggla, 2B - The one exception would be if you're assembling a team designed to punt batting average. On that team, Uggla is a star.
  

New York Mets

No-brainers

• Jason Bay, OF
  
• Jose Reyes, SS
  
• Johan Santana, SP
• David Wright, 3B
  

Keepers
(none)

Non-keepers

• Francisco Rodriguez, RP - You can foresee solid production, but K-Rod has just been a good closer the past two years, and you can't keep a closer who isn't great.
• Carlos Beltran, OF - He's supremely talented and a great contributor when healthy, but it's sounding more and more like he's going to miss extensive time.
  

Philadelphia Phillies

No-brainers

• Ryan Howard, 1B
  
• Chase Utley, 2B
  
• Roy Halladay, SP
  

Keepers

• Cole Hamels, SP - His 2009 was a step backwards, but I have faith in the talent.
  
• Jimmy Rollins, SS - His .250 average in 2009 seems an aberration, which means you can count on top 25 production again in '10.
• Shane Victorino, OF - Across the board solid performance, and the lineup is still going to be great.
• Jayson Werth, OF - Surprisingly close to a no-brainer, but since his explosion was fairly quiet, figured I ought to explain: 36 HR, 99 RBI, 98 R, 20 SB. Got it?
  

Non-keepers

• J.A. Happ, SP - I like everything about Happ except that he's very average in Citizens Bank Park. It's a tough park, but you can't bench a keeper for half of his starts.
  
• Raul Ibanez, OF - Had he not missed time, Ibanez would've likely finished with 100+ RBI for the fourth straight season. But I have trouble trusting a 37-year-old bopper, even in this lineup.
  

Washington Nationals

No-brainers

• Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
  

Keepers

• Adam Dunn, 1B - There's value in reliability, and Dunn has had at least 38 HR and 92 RBI in each of the past six seasons. Plus, you can partner him with Uggla if you're punting AVG and get 70 HR and 180 RBI from 1B and 2B (yes, Nick, I'm talking to you).
  

Non-keepers

• Stephen Strasburg, SP - Not yet.
  

The Price You Pay...

Well, now we know what the cost was going to be of me getting all four games right two weekends ago: the comedy of errors that the Vikings put on yesterday. If you had told me that the Vikings would hold the Saints to 257 total yards and put up 475 total yards of offense themselves, I'd have thought there was no way that Minnesota wouldn't be in the Super Bowl. Well, except for the fact that I know you like to see me in pain.

Before the game, the Fox NFL crew made picks regarding the game, and someone (Bradshaw maybe?) said that he thought the Vikings had the better team, but picked the Saints to win because of "fate." I mentioned to a friend and fellow Vikings fan that I thought that was a pretty flimsy reason to pick a team, but it certainly seemed like things were stacked against the Vikings, a sentiment that came to a culmination on the Saints' overtime drive, the only possession of the overtime period (don't get me started).

The Saints earned their way to midfield on a great kickoff return and a holding penalty on Minnesota. After incompletions on first and second down, Drew Brees found Devery Henderson for a nine yard gain. The spot of the ball didn't seem to be in question by anyone, but the review officials called for another look, presumably to see if they could find a way to give the Saints a first down. They couldn't. On fourth and one, Pierre Thomas lunged over the pile and appeared to be right at the first down marker. I know I was watching the game with purple and yellow blinders on, but on review, it seemed that he was stopped short.

On the next play, Ben Leber was called for a phantom pass interference penalty because the Saints receiver fell over backpeddling to try to find an uncatchable ball. It was literally the worst pass interference call I've seen all season. But the Vikings weren't done. Leber came back on the next play and stuffed Reggie Bush for a five yard loss, pushing the Saints to what would be a 51-yard field goal attempt. On third and fifteen, Brees found Robert Meachem for a 12-yard gain, but upon review, the ball appeared to bounce up off the turf, suggesting that he may not have had complete possession of the football. While it was a difficult call, the right call was to acknowledge that when the ball bounces up, the receiver hasn't got control of it. New Orleans kicker Garrett Hartley hit a pedestrian 40-yard field goal to win the game, and leave a bitter taste in my mouth.

But realistically, the Vikings didn't earn the victory any more than the Saints did. While the Vikings' defense did a fantastic job in stifling one of the most potent offenses in football, the offense put the ball on the turf SIX TIMES, losing three of those fumbles, and they couldn't have lost them in worst spots. Twice they fumbled inside the Saints' 10-yard line, and Percy Harvin's fourth quarter fumble gave the Saints the ball on the Vikings' 7-yard line, and led to a Saints' score.

By the way, the box score will tell you that Brett Favre fumbled the ball once, but that fumble should be attributed to Adrian Peterson, whose arms seemed to refuse the ball at the Saints' 4-yard line. Overall, Favre had a good game, and it's a shame that he'll be remembered for the one big mistake pass at the end of regulation that was intercepted, rather than the great plays he made all game, and all season, to give the Vikings a chance to go to the Super Bowl.

Hope he's back next year. And somebody call Tom Coughlin, get him to help Peterson like he did Tiki Barber. Shit, fire Brad Childress and hire him, maybe he wouldn't send twelve guys into the huddle off of a timeout to push your team out of field goal range.

Quick Predicks

Apologies for not having a radio show this week, but since I was so successful last week, I figured I'd better at least throw some predictions up here, to let the world correct itself. I'd hate to have the world balance out by me getting canned or breaking my arm or something.

Jets at Colts

The Jets were considerable underdogs each of the first two weeks of the playoffs, and they pulled out a couple of nail-biter victories. This week, they're again facing a tall order, going into Indianapolis to face the #1 seed in the AFC. I have a hard time seeing New York being the team to stop the Colts, but I had a hard time seeing them beating the Chargers, too.

I think the difference here is that the Colts have Matt Stover, a kicker who thrived on being counted upon for years in Baltimore. Shayne Graham and Nate Kaeding were both good kickers on teams that historically have put up a ton of points. Stover had to kick for that classic Ravens team with the great defense and an anemic offense. He's capable of making kicks when points are hard to come by. I think it'll be closer than the 8.5 point spread I'm seeing, but I do think the Colts will pull it out.

Prediction: Colts 20, Jets 15

Vikings at Saints

In the interest of full disclosure, I will remind all of you that the Vikings are my second favorite NFL team (behind the lowly Redskins). That said, I still think it's reasonable to expect Minnesota to win this game. I know that Percy Harvin is still uncertain for the game today (though it's looking more and more like he will be able to play), but even if he doesn't, the Vikings still have plenty of weapons on offense, just like the Saints.

But you can't say the same about the Saints' defense that you can about the Vikings. Minnesota's front four might be...check that, is the most prolific in football. Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are so adept at stuffing the run that Leslie Frazier's linebackers can be used to fill in other gaps. And Jared Allen, while one of the most costly acquisitions in NFL history, has proven to be worth everything the Vikings gave up to get him. It's still not easy to root for longtime Packer Brett Favre, but as long as he's wearing purple, I'll forgive him his past transgressions.

Prediction: Vikings 30, Saints 22

Perfection?

Jim Caldwell's got nothing on me. Check our radio show from last week if you don't know what I'm talking about.

Relax, Tony Dungy. Not EVERYONE is a racist.

Tony Dungy thought it necessary earlier this week to lament the process through which this offseason's coaching vacancies have been filled. His specific qualm was with the faux interviews he believed were conducted with Jerry Gray (by the Redskins) and Leslie Frazier (by the Seahawks). Dungy's argument is that both positions were, for all intents and purposes, already filled by Mike Shanahan and Pete Carroll, respectively.

Dungy's quote:

“That is not what the Rooney Rule is supposed to be, (that) you make up your mind and then interview a candidate for it anyway just to satisfy the rule.”

I understand what he means by this. Dungy means that the "Rooney Rule" was instituted with the intention of getting more teams to interview and subsequently hire black head coaches (technically the rule is "minority" head coaches, but I haven't seen many Asian-Americans arguing about their under-representation among NFL coaches). And there's validity in both the intention and the execution. Football has long been perceived as having an "old boys" network, where the same coaches were re-hashed through several teams without opening the door to new candidates, a system that puts minority coaches at a distinct disadvantage. Forcing teams to interview minority candidates means you're forcing the door open, and any industry benefits from expanding its pool of potential employees.

But the situations in Washington and Seattle are exactly what the Rooney Rule demands. The Rooney Rule was never meant to force owners to hire minority candidates, nor to force owners to hire anyone other than who they thought was the best man for the job (let's not go into the concept of lady coaches). The idea is to simply push forward the names of legitimate, viable minority candidates, so that they're considered with their non-minority peers. The rule ensures that guys like Gray, Frazier, and Perry Fewell get the same chances as guys like Jim Haslett, Jim Fassell, and Marty Mornhinweg.

And let's not so quickly dismiss the progress that the NFL has made in this regard. Just in the past two years, four African-American head coaches have been hired, with relative success: Mike Tomlin, Jim Caldwell, Mike Singletary, and Raheem Morris. And those of you who've been paying attention to my subtleties have probably noticed that I like what Perry Fewell was able to do with a bad situation in Buffalo. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Fewell were awarded a head coaching gig in the next three years.

I'm not saying that Tony Dungy is completely without basis for calling on the NFL to keep a watchful eye on teams' compliance with this rule. But calling out teams that follow the letter of the law is irresponsible, and borders on slander. It's the right of every owner to hire whoever they think is the best coach. Washington Redskins owner Daniel Snyder has been friends with Mike Shanahan for a decade. Do we really think that any other candidate, minority or otherwise, stood a chance? If John Fox would've been given only a sham interview, why are we mad that Jerry Gray got the same treatment? It's all about getting in the door.

I was never crazy about the Rooney Rule for various reasons (mostly because it's named after the Steelers' owner, and I loathe the Steelers). I don't like the idea of the league directing a team's coaching search. But even in the most unfavorable situations, it does what it's intended to do, which is get interviews for minority candidates. With how well so many teams have done with minority head coaches (Caldwell, Tomlin, and Lovie Smith to name a few), I'd say the proof is in the pudding for anyone slow to embrace the rule. Teams unwilling to open their doors to the best possible candidate will be left behind with lesser coaches, poorer records, and disgruntled fans.

As my good friend Derek likes to say, "The market will take care of it."

From Dannyville to Shannyville?

First off, I had been hoping that Jon Gruden would be the next head coach for the Washington Redskins. I like Gruden's fire, and from listening to his commentary on Monday Night Football this season, I like his coaching mentality. He seems to have the ability to analyze problems logically, but also the mindset to challenge his guys to go out there and just get it done.

That being said, I found Mike Shanahan's introductory press conference refreshing and exciting. He's got a swagger and a comfort level that we haven't seen since Marty Schottenheimer (Joe Gibbs 2.0 lacked something, not sure what). Within seconds of Shanahan starting his statement, I felt reassured that my favorite football team was in capable hands.

Another note that was mentioned in every article I read was that Daniel Snyder was not at the podium for this press conference, instead sitting in the audience, and not answering any questions or making any statements before leaving afterward. It's obvious that, at least from a public relations standpoint, and at least for now, Daniel Snyder is willing to take a back seat to the football professionals. Whether that endures remains to be seen, but this is already a change from standard procedure in this town, and we're all happy to see it.

Is He A Keeper 2.0 - The Method to Our Madness

We're going to start up our Is He A Keeper? segment again soon, but before we do, we wanted to explain how the formatting will change this time around. Instead of long articles about individual players, we're going to split things up by team, and post a separate article for each division. Each article will list the no-brainer keepers for each team, and then give you a blurb about any questionable guys, along with a verdict: keep him or kick him?.

As a reminder, our criteria for keepers follows the same logic as our super-competitive twelve-team league, where we keep eight players without limitations on tenure, position, etc. So our basic logic is, would we place this player in the top 90 or so options going forward?

2009 Redskins Report Card: Week 17 vs. San Diego Chargers

Chargers 23, Redskins 20

And like that, the Jim Zorn era comes to a close in Washington. I'll give ratings, but you know what happened. The Chargers played their starters for a less than quarter, and their second team beat the Redskins.

Instead, we'll spend this blog looking back on the past two years and how Washington lamented, then embraced, then skewered Zorn. I'll draw from Redskins Report Cards from 2008 and 2009 for content and context. Don't worry, links will be provided...URLs, not sausage links. But you're right, we should go to IHOP after this.

Offense: C-
Defense: C-
Special Teams: C
Overall: C-

2008, Week 1: Giants 16, Redskins 7
Report Card

Zorn's first game looked a lot like every other game the Redskins played under him as head coach. Decent defensive performance (with the classic Greg Blache bend-don't-break mentality), good kickoff returns, an offense that couldn't capitalize. You can blame a hundred people for the Redskins' difficulties over the past two years, but high on that list have to be Zorn, Jason Campbell, and the guys who put those two together (Dan Snyder and Vinny Cerrato). When you manage just 209 yards of total offense, don't expect to win. Like, ever.

2008, Week 2: Redskins 29, Saints 24
Report Card

The Redskins gained 455 yards of total offense, and allowed just 250, but they won by only five points. We probably should've known something was wrong.

2008, Week 6: Rams 19, Redskins 17
Report Card

Following back-to-back victories against the Cowboys and Eagles, the Redskins lost to the lowly St. Louis Rams, a team that would win one other game all season, and only three games total in Jim Zorn's coaching career. The victory over Philadelphia the week before had me thinking about a deep playoff run, but most Redskins fans will remember this as the loss that reaffirmed all of our negative instincts about this era. Correctly, I might add.

2008, Week 9: Steelers 23, Redskins 6
Report Card

This is where the Redskins were exposed, and they went 2-5 after this game to miss the playoffs and disappoint fans throughout Washington who had thought that maybe, just maybe, we had something to root for.

By the way, if you're a Washington sports fan and you don't yet like the Capitals, get your head together. They're one of the best teams in hockey, and with their young nucleus, it's going to be that way for a while. Get on the train now, so you can enjoy some good years. Between the Nationals, Wizards, and Redskins, the Caps are the only chance we've got for a while.

2008, Week 17: 49ers 27, Redskins 24
Report Card

The way you play when the games don't matter says something about the character of your team. Perry Fewell was as good as gone when he coached Buffalo's meaningless game on Sunday against the Colts, but he guided the team to a 30-7 victory. That says something to me. The Redskins' performance in meaningless end-of-season games, though? Not so hot.

2009, Week 2: Redskins 9, Rams 7
Report Card

In retrospect, how on Earth did I look at this game and see an eleven- or twelve-win team? The defense must've looked astoundingly good, because the offensive stats would suggest something more like, I don't know, a 4-12 team?

2009, Week 6: Chiefs 14, Redskins 6
Report Card

This game was the most eye-opening experience of the season for most 'Skins fans. This was the worst we'd ever seen our team play, and considering the Detroit loss earlier in the season, that's saying something.

It was also the week that I discovered Reby Sky. Yum.

2009, Week 13: Saints 33, Redskins 30 (OT)
Report Card

This game was named by Yahoo as the 6th greatest game of 2009, and I'm sure it was...for people in every other city. For the Redskins, it was a crushing defeat that was symptomatic of the entire Jim Zorn era. It's all one big tease that makes you think you've got something going on, but in reality, she's inevitably going home with that muscle-head wearing a silk button-down and no undershirt.

Bon Voyage

Listen, there's probably not a Redskins fan out there who's distraught over the firing of Jim Zorn. It wasn't even really news when it happened, just the culmination of a season's worth of rumors. Zorn didn't do himself any favors by running this team to a 4-12 record after not really losing any key pieces, and adding the $100 million man, Albert Haynesworth. While Haynesworth had his ups and downs this season, I still see him as a solid signing. The problem comes with the lack of depth you afford your team by tying up so much money in one player, and that was particularly apparent when Washington's offensive line started to go down.

The good news is that the potential of an uncapped year can be of great assistance to the Redskins. Many people see this as an opportunity for Daniel Snyder to attempt to "buy" a championship, but more logically, it's an opportunity to rid this team of the albatross contracts that pinch the team's cap flexibility. Clinton Portis and Antwaan Randle El (among others) have contracts worth well more than their actual contributions to the team. The opportunity to cut those players without taking the standard cap penalties should make new general manager and cap specialist Bruce Allen salivate. It's not often you get to undo your mistakes, and the Redskins must take advantage.

So ends another season of the Redskins Report Card. Let's try to enjoy watching other teams succeed, if we can. Hopefully my #2 team, the Vikings, can stifle the disappointment brought on by my #1.

When 14-1 Isn't Good Enough

There's been a good deal of debate this week regarding Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Caldwell's election to bench his starters midway through Sunday's eventual loss to the New York Jets. This is a rare situation where I have a strong opinion about something like this, so I'm going to spout it: Caldwell was an idiot for pulling his guys.

I completely understand his logic about not wanting to risk an injury to one of his best players. Without Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney, Dallas Clark, or Reggie Wayne, the Colts are probably still fighting for a playoff spot, and they'd be in bad shape in the playoffs if they lost any of those four to injury.

But they did play half of the game, right? Was that half of football intended to just be a scrimmage, trying to stay fresh without worrying about winning? I doubt it. Manning and the Colts were out there trying to win the game right up until the point they were pulled from the game. Everyone on the team has been saying the right things, which suggests that they buy into the coach's ideas on the matter, and that's great. They all think that the move will put them in the best possible position to win the Super Bowl, which Caldwell and GM Bill Polian have reiterated over and over as being the ultimate goal.

Do you know what Manning, Freeney, Clark, and Wayne all have in common, though? They've all already won a Super Bowl. Winning another one would be great, and solidify all of them as among the best at their positions in this generation of players. But the possibility of going 19-0 for a completely undefeated season, a season that would trump the '72 Miami Dolphins as the greatest NFL accomplishment of all time, should have overtaken the desire to "stay healthy."

It's so rare that anyone has an opportunity to be considered among the best all time at anything. The 2007-2008 Celtics went 66-16 and rolled through the playoffs, but people don't even consider them to have been among the top 3 Boston teams of all time. The Yankees only won 103 games in their 2009 World Series winning season, so they're just the best team this season, not a candidate for the best team ever.

Think back to the 2007 NFL season. It was capped off with a great Super Bowl, but a Super Bowl most memorable because it was the Patriots' chance to unseat history. When you remember that game, and that season, you'll remember that the Giants won the Super Bowl, but you'll remember it most because they beat the Patriots to preserve the '72 Dolphins' place in lore. The opportunity to be legendary is so rare that we'll remember vividly even those who came up short.

How dare Caldwell and Polian deprive this team of the opportunity for perfection. How dare they sacrifice history for a perceived improvement of their chances at winning a Super Bowl. For me, no matter how well this team does (and there's a reasonable chance that they win it all), I'll always wonder what might have been.

2009 Redskins Report Card: Week 16 vs. Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys 17, Redskins 0

It's too bad that the Redskins have to play a game in week 17, because this game seemed like a perfect bow to put on Jim Zorn's tenure in Washington. A horrific, grotesque bow.

Offense: D
Defense: C-
Special Teams: C+
Overall: D+

Getting shut out by the Cowboys is a tough pill to swallow, but particularly bitter when it's a home game. The Redskins' farthest drive in the game was their last, a 51-yard march that ended when Washington once again got into a bad down-and-distance situation, and couldn't convert. When you can't make big plays down the field, you have to get yourself into good situations through runs and short passes. When you can't extend drives, you have to go for home runs. When you can't do either, you're the Redskins.

I've often wondered how a team would fare if they had a great punter but little else. Turns out, they would get shut out by the Cowboys. Hunter Smith is a real asset on this team, with five of his eight punts putting Dallas inside their own 20 yard line. But field position only gets you so far, and Washington couldn't do anything with theirs.

About the only positive you can take away from this game is that it looks like the Cowboys have as little faith in Shawn Suisham as the Redskins did. Three times they elected to go for it rather than give Suisham a 47-52 yard field goal attempt. So at least one other team doesn't think much of the same kicker.

Next week pits the Redskins against the San Diego Chargers, who have absolutely nothing to play for, and who probably will be sitting half of their starters. I think Stan Humphries is slated to start at QB.

Around the League

• San Diego is playing as well as anybody in the NFL right now. If you've got money burning a hole in your pocket and you want to bet on someone to win the AFC, I think the smart money is on the Chargers.
• Hmm, the Patriots might be back. Uh oh.
• Has any team ever swung as hard as the Giants from last week's domination of the Redskins to this week's embarrassment against the Panthers?
• What the hell happened to the Saints?
• In a game with intense Mattingly fantasy football implications, the Ravens fell to the Steelers. A pair of running back fumbles were NOT appreciated.
• The Packers sure are peaking at the right time.
• I told you Cutler would be fine. Or if I didn't, I told other people, and they can attest to the fact that I said it.